M. EMMANUEL

ABLE ARCHER'25

Eurozone Bonds Rotation Model

ABLE ARCHER’25

Model Scope

ABLE ARCHER'25 is a macro-driven investment model focused on European bonds as part of a long-horizon retirement portfolio.
It seeks to balance stability and yield, while acknowledging the economic distortions and risks caused by recent EU foreign policy decisions.

Design Principles

  • Allocation limited to EUR and CHF bonds.
  • Annual rotation and recalibration based on scenario analysis
  • Multi-model input: interest rate cycles, inflation dynamics, and geopolitical risk
  • Designed for long-term private capital preservation and income continuity on retirement

Scenario Framework

Each year, the model re-evaluates allocation weights and maturity exposure using a structured set of macroeconomic and geopolitical scenarios.

Opening scenarios include:

  • Energy and industrial recovery (détente following the collapse of the current political regime in the Eurozone)
  • Continued Energy and industrial disruption from prolonged proxy confrontation with Russia
  • Full-scale European economic depression or sovereign default contagion
  • (Extreme case) direct military escalation or limited TNW exchange scenario in Central Europe

The system treats these as stress boundaries — not forecasts — ensuring that portfolio structure remains coherent even under extreme assumptions.

Methodology

ABLE ARCHER'25 uses a set of macro indicators with corporate credit metrics to guide yearly rebalancing, providing a simple but yet effective way to provide stability and yield.

The rotation mechanism rebalances capital and maturities aligned with the dominant macro regime and the rest of strategies that cover the portfolio.

Model Architecture

ABLE ARCHER’25 — Model Architecture Four-box flow: Macro Inputs → Scenario Calibration → Rotation Logic → Execution & Monitoring. ABLE ARCHER’25 — MODEL ARCHITECTURE Macro Inputs — Energy supply situation — Fiscal stress metrics — Corporate credit Scenario Calibration — Peace (policy normalization) — Proxy confrontation — Escalation Rotation Logic — Duration shift by scenario — Credit bias adjustment — Maturity roll selection — Liquidity screening and allocation bias Execution & Monitoring — Allocation confirmation — Stress tests vs inflation & default

Availability and Deployment

The model is designed to be used as part of a long-term portfolio and has been deployed with own family capital in 2025.

Although not designed as a product, it can be licensed to hedge funds and family offices under appropriate agreements.

About the Name

ABLEARCHER System

Photo: NATO Able Archer'83 — preparations for a war in Central Europe that could not be fought and a victory that could not exist.

Much like the original Able Archer exercises — the annual NATO maneuvers in Central Europe during the 1980s — the model contemplates a worsening scenario in Europe.

Able Archer’25 mitigates and adapts to stressed conditions, but is likely futile in the extreme ones — as the 1980s exercises themselves were.

The name is also a historical wink: in 2025, Europeans once again find ourselves resigned spectators to decisions made in our name and not necessarily in our best interest.

2025-10-20

Disclaimer

This page reflects my own personal research and is presented for informational purposes only.

It is not an investment proposal or a performance representation. It does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation. I do not manage third-party capital.

Institutional investors, hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, and family offices may contact me regarding potential IP licensing and related services if interested. All intellectual property related to these models and methodologies belongs to M. Emmanuel.

This web page is not intended for retail investors. These models are not available to retail investors. Related retail inquiries will not be considered.